Oracles : how prediction markets turn employees into visionaries / Donald N. Thompson.

Includes bibliographies and index.

The mutual fun market -- What are these prediction markets? -- Sports and movie markets -- Election markets -- Estimation markets -- What can prediction markets replace? -- Google -- Best Buy -- The technology evangelist -- Boardroom markets -- Way-outside-the-box-markets : Casting calls and epidemiology -- Further outside the box : Terrorism markets -- Government markets -- Long-term markets -- When no one wants to know -- More red flags than Beijing -- Finding the scorpion -- Becoming an oracle.

From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical to predicting a crucial delay of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US president ital elections--prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations--GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA--has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee, tap the 'intellectual bandwidth" of retired employees, replace surveys, substitute for endless meetings. By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they've overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and he market--all to the benefit of their bottom line.

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