Lost in a Gallup : polling failure in U.S. presidential elections / W. Joseph Campbell.

By:

Campbell, W. Joseph [Author]

Material type: Text

text

Media type:

computer

Carrier type:

online resource

ISBN:

9780520972131

Subject(s):

Genre/Form:

Electronic Books.

LOC classification:

JK1967 .L678 2020

Online resources:

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Contents:

Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again?

Subject: "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"--

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Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	URL	Status	Date due	Barcode
Online Book (LOGIN USING YOUR MY CIU LOGIN AND PASSWORD)	G. Allen Fleece Library ONLINE	Non-fiction	JK1967 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Link to resource	Available		on1154896369

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Previous	JK1929.8 Making race, making power : North Carolina's road to disfranchisement /	JK1965 The history of American electoral behavior /edited by Joel H. Silbey, Allan G. Bogue, and William H. Flanigan ; contributors, Lee Benson [and seventeen others.	JK1965 Votes that count and voters who don't : how journalists sideline electoral participation (without even knowing it) /	JK1967 Lost in a Gallup : polling failure in U.S. presidential elections /	JK1967 On voter competencePaul Goren.	JK1968 2014 Political communication & strategy : consequences of the 2014 midterm elections /	JK1968 2016 Latinos and the 2016 election : Latino resistance and the election of Donald Trump /	Next

Includes bibliographies and index.

Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again?

"Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"--